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National Journal Insiders Poll

08-04-2007

National Journal Insiders Poll

Richard E. Cohen and Peter Bell (Email this author)
© National Journal Group, Inc.

Q: Who do you expect will be serving as attorney general on January 1, 2008?
Democrats (41 votes)

Alberto Gonzales 37 percent
A new attorney general who has
been confirmed by the Senate 10 percent
A recess appointee 24 percent
A temporary attorney general
from within the
Justice Department 29 percent

Gonzales
"The president can't afford to dump him: He knows too much."

"Bush won't ask Gonzales to step down because it won't solve the problem -- the investigation into corruption in the Department of Justice will continue. Prosecution of Gonzales would take longer than January."

"Just as President Bush is dedicated to pursuing his failed foreign policy in Iraq to the end of his presidency, Bush will stubbornly retain Gonzales as attorney general until he resigns."

"I hope! He is proof that things can get worse. Oh, how we pine for the good old days of [Attorney General John] Ashcroft."

"The president is 100 percent behind him, no matter the revelations. Unless Republicans demand accountability, Gonzales will remain."

A new, Senate-confirmed appointee
"Gonzales will not survive the summer. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Chris Cox will be attorney general by November 1."

"It will be [former] Senator [John] Danforth. Senators are not going to vote against another senator, plus he's regarded as ethical."

A recess appointee
"President Bush will recess appoint the next attorney general to retaliate against Congress for unveiling another Bush administration scandal."

A temporary placeholder
"Temporary attorney general will be busy investigating the Justice Department and White House. It is a target-rich environment."

"If Democrats stay on the case, we will have a new attorney general. If we back off, as we often do, he will stay around to the end of this administration."

Q: Who do you expect will be serving as attorney general on January 1, 2008?
Republicans (35 votes)

Alberto Gonzales 43 percent
A new attorney general who has
been confirmed by the Senate 9 percent
A recess appointee 26 percent
A temporary attorney general
from within the
Justice Department 23 percent

Gonzales
"He is not good, but the president will support him."

"In typical fashion, the White House will stick behind him at its own peril. He'll serve out his term, and continue being the target of every Democrat and butt of every late-night talk-show joke."

"He can withstand the heat of frivolous attacks."

"Why would the president get rid of his whipping boy?"

A new, Senate-confirmed appointee
"The incumbent is an embarrassment to the Bush administration. He should resign immediately out of loyalty to the president and his cause. Sadly, this administration has an uneven record on Cabinet appointments, and the current attorney general is a miniature."

A recess appointee
"Gonzales has lost the confidence of all 300 million Americans, except one -- an important one, but only one nonetheless."

A temporary placeholder
"Enough, already!"

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the House in the 2008 election?
Democrats (41 votes)
August 2007
Average Score: 1.6
Low (0-3) 88%
Moderate (4-6) 12%
High (7-10) 0%

0 to 3
0. "What is less than zero?"

0. "It's going the wrong way for Republicans."

0. "They have no stars and back bench. The talent is with the Democrats."

0. "Republicans will be seen in the House as having no goal, except to stop everything. And that offers nothing to the American people."

0. "Faced with an obstructionist minority and an obstinate president, the American people will cast another vote for change."

1. "No positive agenda equals no chance of takeover."

1. "The war in Iraq would need to completely change, the Democrats would need to field no candidates, the Republicans would need to look like they care about regular people."

1. "Joe Biden and Mike Huckabee have better odds [of winning the presidency]. It will take an unpopular Democratic president to imperil the Democratic majority."

3. "But only if we hand it to them, which we could do."

____________________________________________________________

FLASHBACK
In the last Congress, National Journal's Congressional Insiders were repeatedly asked to gauge the likelihood that the Democrats would take over the House in the 2006 election:

Democrats
September 2006
Average Score: 6.9

Low (0-3) 8%

Moderate (4-6) 38%

High (7-10) 63%

Democrats
November 2005
Average Score: 5.7

Low (0-3) 9%

Moderate (4-6) 60%

High (7-10) 31%

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the House in the 2008 election?
Republicans (37 votes)
August 2007
Average Score: 4.8
Low (0-3) 24%
Moderate (4-6) 54%
High (7-10) 22%

4 to 6
5. "Way too early to tell right now. There are a lot of variables -- from who the top of the tickets will be, how the situation in Iraq develops, and how effective the new Democrat majority is at advancing their agenda."

5. "The present political landscape isn't rosy for Republicans, but a lot can happen in a year. While 2008 is a long shot, 2010 (the midway point for Hillary's presidency) is much more likely to deliver a Republican majority in the House."

5. "Five is generous, and it could definitely dip lower if there is a spate of retirements in September as well as other unknown Republicans looped into scandals or investigations."

5. "Anti-incumbent mood vexes the new majority!"

6. "Democrats had a great opportunity but have largely squandered it. If the election were held today, only the anti-Bush sentiment may save their majority."

7 to 10
7. "The tax-and-spend Democrats are back. They haven't found a program they won't spend on, and a dollar in the economy they won't take. Oh, yeah, did I mention immigration? We love you, Nancy P."

8. "A Bush-less presidential election will lift the 61 GOP-leaning districts where low turnout helped Democrats."

____________________________________________________________

FLASHBACK
In the last Congress, National Journal's Congressional Insiders were repeatedly asked to gauge the likelihood that the Democrats would take over the House in the 2006 election:

Republicans
September 2006
Average Score: 3.4

Low (0-3) 56%

Moderate (4-6) 33%

High (7-10) 10%

Republicans
November 2005
Average Score: 1.9

Low (0-3) 79%

Moderate (4-6) 21%

High (7-10) 0%

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate in the 2008 election?
Democrats (41 votes)
August 2007
Average Score: 2.1
Low (0-3) 85%
Moderate (4-6) 15%
High (7-10) 0%

0 to 3
0. "Even Republicans know it's less than zero."

0. "The question is, how big a Democratic majority?"

0. "They're playing defense in too many key states. It's our turf again in 2008."

2. "Iraq haunts Republicans."

4 to 6
4. "Democrats will remain the majority in 2008, riding in on the coattails of a new, vibrant Democratic presidential administration."

4. "The planets are aligned with the Democrats."

____________________________________________________________

FLASHBACK
In the last Congress, National Journal's Congressional Insiders were repeatedly asked to gauge the likelihood that the Democrats would take over the Senate in the 2006 election:

Democrats
September 2006
Average Score: 4.5

Low (0-3) 23%

Moderate (4-6) 73%

High (7-10) 5%

Democrats
November 2005
Average Score: 5.5

Low (0-3) 6%

Moderate (4-6) 74%

High (7-10) 20%

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate in the 2008 election?
Republicans (37 votes)
August 2007
Average Score: 3.4
Low (0-3) 46%
Moderate (4-6) 54%
High (7-10) 0%

0 to 3
2. "Far too many Republican seats in competition, and not enough money."

3. "Does it really matter? Whether controlled by Democrats or Republicans, the Senate is consummately incapable of moving forward on anything."

4 to 6
4. "[National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John] Ensign is very good, but there are too many seats to defend."

5. "Tough to climb that hill without a tailwind."

5. "The gang that couldn't shoot straight. And I'm talking all 100 [senators]."

____________________________________________________________

FLASHBACK
In the last Congress, National Journal's Congressional Insiders were repeatedly asked to gauge the likelihood that the Democrats would take over the Senate in the 2006 election:

Republicans
September 2006
Average Score: 2.1

Low (0-3) 85%

Moderate (4-6) 13%

High (7-10) 3%

Republicans
November 2005
Average Score: 2.3

Low (0-3) 72%

Moderate (4-6) 26%

High (7-10) 3%

National Journal Insiders

National Journal's Congressional Insiders Poll includes 129 members of Congress -- 10 Senate Democrats, 14 Senate Republicans, 52 House Democrats, and 53 House Republicans.

Democratic Congressional Insiders Sens. Sherrod Brown, Ben Cardin, Thomas Carper, Christopher Dodd, Edward Kennedy, Frank Lautenberg, Barbara Mikulski, Mark Pryor, Ken Salazar, Jon Tester; Reps. Tom Allen, Robert Andrews, Michael Arcuri, Tammy Baldwin, Melissa Bean, Xavier Becerra, Howard Berman, Marion Berry, Rick Boucher, Michael Capuano, Dennis Cardoza, Chris Carney, James Clyburn, Jim Cooper, Joseph Crowley, Elijah Cummings, Artur Davis, Diana DeGette, Rosa DeLauro, Eliot Engel, Anna Eshoo, Sam Farr, Chaka Fattah, Bob Filner, Alcee Hastings, Mike Honda, Jay Inslee, Steve Israel, Jim Langevin, John Lewis, Zoe Lofgren, Nita Lowey, Carolyn Maloney, Ed Markey, Jim McDermott, Jim McGovern, Kendrick Meek, Jim Moran, David Price, Silvestre Reyes, Jan Schakowsky, Jose Serrano, Adam Smith, John Spratt, Pete Stark, John Tanner, Ellen Tauscher, Bennie Thompson, Chris Van Hollen, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Henry Waxman, and Peter Welch.

GOP Congressional Insiders Sens. Lamar Alexander, Jim Bunning, John Cornyn, Jim DeMint, Lindsey Graham, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Johnny Isakson, Richard Lugar, Mel Martinez, Lisa Murkowski, Olympia Snowe, John Sununu, John Thune, David Vitter; Reps. Brian Bilbray, Marsha Blackburn, John Boehner, Kevin Brady, John Campbell, Chris Cannon, Eric Cantor, Michael Castle, Tom Cole, Mike Conaway, Tom Davis, John Doolittle, David Dreier, Phil English, Jeff Flake, Scott Garrett, Bob Goodlatte, Kay Granger, Doc Hastings, Pete Hoekstra, Bob Inglis, Peter King, Jack Kingston, Mark Kirk, John Kline, Ray LaHood, Dan Lungren, Kenny Marchant, Jim McCrery, Patrick McHenry, John Mica, Candice Miller, Marilyn Musgrave, Sue Myrick, Devin Nunes, Mike Pence, Tom Price, Deborah Pryce, Adam Putnam, Dave Reichert, Tom Reynolds, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Mike Rogers of Michigan, Paul Ryan, Pete Sessions, John Shadegg, Christopher Shays, Adrian Smith, Mark Souder, Pat Tiberi, Fred Upton, Zach Wamp, and Joe Wilson.

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